Course Methodology

The course is a hands-on workshop that applies the forecasting techniques utilizing MS Excel through the use of different exercises and case studies.

Course Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• Apply different forecasting techniques that will help in making financial and business decisions
• Utilize Microsoft Excel to build forecasting models effectively
• Explain the different macro and micro assumptions affecting financial and business forecasts
• Build models for forecasting income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements and their components
• Differentiate between various forecasting models and approaches and assist senior management in understanding their impact

Target Audience

Financial controllers, analysts, finance and accounting managers, supervisors, and finance professionals who need to create, interpret and maintain forecasts in their organizations.

Target Competencies

• Forecasting
• Time series analysis
• Regression analysis
• Modeling financial statements
• Applying Excel functions and tools

Forecasting models

• Qualitative models
• Market research approach
• Delphi method technique
• Quantitative models
• The indicator approach
• Causal models
• Econometric models
• Regression analysis: simple and multiple
• Correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination
• Time series methods
• Simple average
• Moving average
• Exponential smoothing
• Expected value

Types of forecasting

• Micro and macro factors
• Forecasting sales
• Estimating market demand
• Estimating company demand
• Developing sales forecast
• Forecasting cost of sales
• Forecasting operating expenses
• Forecasting key assets and liabilities accounts
• Modeling the income statement forecast
• Modeling the balance sheet forecast

Building forecasting models

• The units, quantity and activity levels
• The price and cost per unit of activity
• Pricing strategies
• Cost plus pricing
• Pricing: business objectives
• Pricing: return on investment
• Price skimming
• Variable cost pricing
• Breakeven pricing

Cash flow forecasting

• Using published cash flow statements
• Understanding and analyzing cash flow statements
• Forecasting free cash flows

Working with uncertainty and risk

• Scenario forecasting and analysis
• Judgmental forecasting
• Probability and risk